桥水达里奥最新长文：不要误以为当前发生的事主要是关于关税
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At this moment, a huge amount of attention is being justifiably paid to the announced tariffs and their very big impacts on markets and economies while very little attention is being paid to the circumstances that caused them and the biggest disruptions that are likely still ahead. Don't get me wrong, while these tariff announcements are very important developments and we all know that President Trump caused them, most people are losing sight of the underlying circumstances that got him elected president and brought these tariffs about. They are also mostly overlooking the vastly more important forces that are driving just about everything, including the tariffs.
在当下，人们理所当然地将大量注意力集中在已宣布的关税及其对市场和经济的巨大影响上，却很少关注导致这些关税产生的根本原因以及未来可能出现的更大冲击。别误会，尽管这些关税政策是极其重要的发展，我们都知道是特朗普总统推动了它们，但大多数人忽视了推动他当选总统并引发这些关税的深层背景。他们同样忽略了驱动几乎所有事件（包括关税）的更为重要的力量。
The far bigger, far more important thing to keep in mind is that we are seeing a classic breakdown of the major monetary, political, and geopolitical orders. This sort of breakdown occurs only about once in a lifetime, but they have happened many times in history when similar unsustainable conditions were in place.
最需要铭记的、更重大且关键的是：我们正在目睹主要货币、政治和地缘政治秩序的经典崩溃。这种崩溃大约一生只会经历一次，但在历史上已多次发生，当类似的不可持续条件形成时就会重演。
More specifically: The monetary/economic order is breaking down because there is too much existing debt, the rates of adding to it are too fast, and existing capital markets and economies are supported by this unsustainably large debt. The debt is unsustainable because the of the large imbalance between a) debtor-borrowers who owe too much debt and are taking on a too much debt because they are hooked on debt to finance their excesses (e.g., the United States) and b) lender-creditors (like China) who already hold too much of the debt and are hooked on selling their goods to the borrower-debtors (like the United States) to sustain their economies. There are big pressures for these imbalances to be corrected one way or another and doing so will change the monetary order in major ways. For example, it is obviously incongruous to have both large trade imbalances and large capital imbalances in a deglobalizing world in which the major players can't trust that the other major players won't cut them off from the items they need (which is an American worry) or pay them the money they are owed (which is a Chinese worry). This is a result of these parties being in a type of war in which self-sufficiency is of paramount importance. Anyone who has studied history knows that such risks under such circumstances have repeatedly led to the same sorts of problems we're seeing now. So, the old monetary/economic order in which countries like China manufacture inexpensively, sell to Americans, and acquire American debt assets, and Americans borrow money from countries like China to make those purchases and build up huge debt liabilities will have to change. These obviously unsustainable circumstances are made even more so by the fact that they have led to American manufacturing deteriorating, which both hollows out middle class jobs in the U.S. and requires America to import needed items from a country that it is increasingly seeing as an enemy. In an era of deglobalization, these big trade and capital imbalances, which reflect trade and capital interconnectedness, will have to shrink one way or another. Also, it should be obvious that the U.S. government debt level and the rate at which the government debt is being added to is unsustainable. (You can find my analysis of this in my new book How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle.) Clearly, the monetary order will have to change in big disruptive ways to reduce all these imbalances and excesses, and we are in the early part of the process of it changing. There are huge capital market implications to this that have huge economic implications, which I will delve into at another time.
具体而言：
1.货币/经济秩序的崩溃
当前的货币/经济秩序正在瓦解，原因是现有债务规模过大、债务增速过快，且资本市场和经济体依赖这种不可持续的高额债务维持。债务不可持续的核心矛盾在于：
债务国（如美国）背负过多债务且持续举债，依赖债务为其过度消费融资；
2.国内政治秩序的崩溃
国内政治秩序正因教育、机会、生产力、收入财富水平及价值观的巨大差距而瓦解，现有政治体系无力修复这些问题。这表现为右翼民粹主义者和左翼民粹主义者之间“不惜一切代价”的权力争夺。民主制度正在失效，因为民主需要妥协和对法治的尊重，而历史表明，在当前的危机时期，这两者都会崩溃。强人专制领袖往往在此时崛起，取代传统的民主与法治。当前不稳定的政治局势还将受到其他力量（如股市和经济问题）的影响，可能进一步加剧政治和地缘政治危机。
The international geopolitical world order is breaking down because the era of one dominant power (the U.S.) that dictates the order that other countries follow is over. The multilateral, cooperative world order the U.S. led is being replaced by a unilateral, power-rules approach. In this new order, the U.S. is still largest power in the world and is shifting to a unilateral, "America first" approach. We are now seeing that manifest in the U.S. led trade-war, geopolitical war, technology war, and, in some cases, military wars.
3.国际地缘政治秩序的崩溃
由单一主导国（美国）制定国际规则的时代已结束。美国领导的多边合作秩序正被单边强权规则取代。尽管美国仍是全球最大强国，但其转向“美国优先”的单边主义，体现在其发动的贸易战、地缘政治战、技术战及部分军事冲突中。
Acts of nature (droughts, floods and pandemics) are increasingly disruptive, and Amazing changes in technology such as AI will be highly impactful to all aspects of life, including the money/debt/economic order, the political order, the international order (by affecting interactions between countries economically and militarily), and the costs of acts of nature.
4.自然力量（干旱、洪水和疫情）的破坏性日益加剧
5.人工智能等技术的变革性影响
技术（如AI）将深刻改变货币/债务/经济秩序、政治秩序、国际互动（经济与军事）及应对自然灾害的成本。
Changes in these forces and how they are affecting each other is what we should be focusing on. For that reason, I urge you to not to let news-grabbing dramatic changes like the tariffs draw your attention away from these five big forces and their interrelationships, which are the real drivers of Overall Big Cycles changes. If you allow yourself to be distracted by them, you will a) miss how the conditions and the dynamics of these big forces are causing these news-making changes, b) fail to think through how these news-making changes will affect these big forces, and c) fail to keep focused on how this Overall Big Cycle and the parts that drive it typically transpire, which will tell you a lot about what is likely to happen.
我们应聚焦于这五大力量的演变及其相互作用。
因此，我敦促大家不要被关税等吸引眼球的新闻事件分散注意力，而应深入理解驱动“大周期”变革的五大根本力量及其关联。若被表象迷惑，你将：
忽视这些力量如何导致新闻事件； 无法预判新闻事件对力量格局的反向影响； 错失通过历史规律预判未来趋势的机会。
货币/市场与经济秩序（引发动荡）； 国内政治秩序（削弱其支持率）； 国际地缘政治秩序（通过金融、经济、政治等多渠道冲击）； 气候变化应对（削弱全球合作）； 技术发展（虽可能促进美国本土技术生产，但破坏资本市场对技术研发的支持）。
以史为鉴： 当前局势是历史上无数次类似危机的现代版本。
建议研究过去政策制定者在类似困境中的应对措施，例如：暂停向“敌国”偿还债务、实施资本管制、征收特别税等。这些政策曾被认为不可想象，但如今需重新评估其机制。货币、政治和地缘政治秩序的崩溃通常以萧条、内战或世界大战的形式出现，随后催生新的国内国际秩序——这一“大周期”在历史中反复上演，理解其阶段至关重要。我在《应对变化中的世界秩序的原则》一书中详细描述了这一周期的六个阶段，读者可对照当前局势判断所处阶段及未来走向。
When I wrote that book and my other books, I hoped, as I still do, that I would be able
1) to help policy makers understand these forces and interact with them to produce better policies so we get better results,
2) to help individuals who can collectively but not individually affect policies to deal with these forces well so they could get better results for themselves and those they care about, and
3) to encourage smart people who have different views than mine to have open, thoughtful exchanges with me so that we can all try to get at what is true and what to do about it.
写作初衷： 我希望通过本书及其他著作
帮助政策制定者理解并善用这些力量以制定更优政策； 助力个人在集体层面推动良性政策变革； 促进不同观点者的开放讨论，共同探索真相与对策。
The views expressed in this article are mine and not necessarily Bridgewater’s.
本文观点仅代表个人，未必反映桥水基金立场。
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